Luxembourg voters anticipate Green/CSV coalition
More than one-quarter of Luxembourg voters (26%) expect the opposition Christian Social People's Party and the Greens to form a coalition government after next year's elections.
This is according to the latest Politmonitor survey, commissioned by the Luxemburger Wort and RTL and carried out by TNS Ilres.
The most expected coalition was also the most desired one, according to the survey, with 16% of respondents supporting a CSV/Green government come October 2018.
Twelve percent of respondents said they wanted to see the CSV in a coalition with the Democratic Party (DP).
A similar number of voters wished the current DP/Luxembourg Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP)/Green coalition to continue, but only 8% actually expect the government to remain at the end of next year.
The second and third most expected coalitions were the CSV/DP and the CSV/LSAP, each with 16%.
Eleven percent of respondents said they wanted to see a CSV/LSAP coalition, while 5% both want and expect the CSV to be the sole party in power.
Most of the people surveyed (63%) expect the CSV to be in government next year.
Thirty-four percent expect the Greens to be in government, 26% the DP and 26% the LSAP
Twenty-six percent indicated "don't know" or "other coalition".
When it comes to what voters wish for, 47% of respondents want to see the CSV in government (including 5% who want the CSV to rule alone), 36% want the Greens, 30% the DP and 31% the LSAP.
Twenty-seven percent said "don't know" or "other coalition".
December 2016-December 2017
The same percentage of people expected the CSV/Greens coalition to come out of the next elections in December last year as now (16%).
Twenty percent of respondents expected the CSV and the LSAP to form a coalition last year, while only 16% believe so now.
Five percent more people now expect the CSV and the DP to form a government together.
More people now also expect the current coalition to survive than in December 2016 (+2 percentage points).
There is less change in terms of desired coalitions, with the biggest change being an uptick of 3 percentage points in the number of people who want a CSV/DP coalition now compared with 2016.
There's a 2-percentage-point drop in the number of people who want a CSV/Alternative Democratic Rerform Party (ADR) coalition, and a 1-percentage-point uptick (to 5%) of people who want to see the CSV rule alone.
The vast majority of DP (39%) and LSAP (37%) voters want the current coalition to remain in place.
Among Green voters, the majority (26%) want an LSAP/Green coalition, and 25% want the current coalition to continue.
The majority of CSV voters (32%) want a CSV/Green coalition compared with 18% of Green voters who support the same.
Six percent of CSV voters would want to see a CSV/ADR coalition.
Only 2% of DP and LSAP voters want their party to be the sole party in power. That number climbs to 4% among Green voters and 13% among CSV voters.
Thirty-seven percent of Green voters and 35% of CSV voters expect their parties to form a coalition next year.
LSAP and DP voters also mostly expect their party to form a coalition with the CSV.
Nineteen percent of DP and LSAP voters expect the current coalition to continue, as do 10% of Green voters surveyed and 3% of CSV voters.
Thirty percent of LSAP voters expect their party not to be in government next year (12% don't know) compared with 3% of CSV voters (14% don't know).
The Sonndesfro was carried out by TNS Ilres on behalf the Luxemburger Wort and RTL.
The survey is a mood indicator over several months, not an election forecast.
Between the end of May and the end of November 2017, 4,726 eligible residents of Luxembourgish nationality over the age of 18 were surveyed (centre: 1,393, south: 1,807, north: 872, east: 654).
There is no weighting of the raw data. Absolute and proportional corrections guarantee the best possible result.
The methodology information was submitted to ALIA, the Luxembourgish independent audiovisual authority.