CSV gains support in northern district
If the Luxembourg legislative elections were held "next Sunday", the Christian Social People's Party (CSV) would stand to gain one seat, and the Luxembourg Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP) would lose one in the northern election district, according to the latest Politmonitor survey commissioned by the Luxemburger Wort and RTL.
The Sonndesfro (Sunday question) of the survey asked people what party they would give most votes to, were the elections held the following Sunday.
More than 870 people of the northern election district were surveyed.
The seat distribution reflected in the latest survey shows the CSV would have five seats, the Democratic Party (DP) would keep its two seats, the Greens (déi Gréng) would keep its one seat and the LSAP would lose one of the two it had in 2013.
The CSV is making the biggest gains compared with the October 2013 election results, with 41.8% of voters saying they would vote for them now, compared with 33.7% in 2013.
The Greens also benefit from a slightly higher number of votes (10.1% say they would vote for them now compared with 9% in October 2013), as does the Left (déi Lénk), with 4.4% now compared with 2.6% in 2013.
All other parties are suffering losses in the North, with the DP being hit the hardest. After winning the votes of 23.2% of respondents in 2013, only 17.7% say they would vote for them now.
The LSAP is also losing support, which fell by 2.4 percentage points.
The Alternative Democratic Reform Party (ADR) also showed a slight loss of 0.9 percentage points.
The Communist Party Luxembourg (KPL) is losing support (-0.6 percentage points), as is the Pirate Party (Piratepartei) (-0.2 percentage points).
The Party for Integral Democracy (PID) loses 1 percentage point compared with 2013.
Most of the trends already observed in the May 2017 Sonndesfro results were reflected in December.
Among the few notable changes are the ADR's results, which, after a high of 7.4% in May 2017, fell to 5.5% in December.
The Left also lost 1.6 percentage points after peaking in May with 6%.
For the DP, the December results are somewhat of a relief. After a dip to 15.1% in May, the party regained 2.6 percentage points in December.
The seat distribution remains the same in December as it was in May.
The Sonndesfro was carried out by TNS Ilres on behalf the Luxemburger Wort and RTL.
The survey is a mood indicator over several months, not an election forecast.
Between the end of May and the end of November 2017, 4,726 eligible residents of Luxembourgish nationality over the age of 18 were surveyed (centre: 1,393, south: 1,807, north: 872, east: 654).
There is no weighting of the raw data. Absolute and proportional corrections guarantee the best possible result.
The methodology information was submitted to ALIA, the Luxembourgish independent audiovisual authority.