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Tough times for Socialists in the South

Tough times for Socialists in the South

3 min. 12.01.2017 From our online archive
The results of the “Sonndesfro” survey for the southern electoral district of Luxembourg show that the LSAP would lose 5% of votes and two seats in Parliament if elections were to be held this Sunday.

(sth) – The results of the “Sonndesfro” survey for the southern electoral district of Luxembourg show turbulent times ahead for the Socialists. The LSAP would lose 5% of votes and consequently two seats in Parliament if elections were to be held this Sunday. 

In our national recap, also taking into account the results of the electoral districts from the East, North and Centre, the current government would lose its majority in the “Chambre des Députés”.

The electoral district South accounts for 23 out of a total of 60 seats in Luxembourg's Parliament. The South, formerly the strongest industrialised area of the country, traditionally sees the Socialists from the LSAP take a large chunk of the votes. This made the LSAP the only real challenger for the CSV during the elections in 2013, giving them seven seats against eight for the conservatives.

After a bit more than three years of governing alongside the DP and Déi Gréng, the picture would present itself somewhat differently for the LSAP. Losing two seats, they would remain at five, while the CSV could gain 3.6% and one seat, putting it at the double (10) of its socialist counterpart. 

Prime Minister Bettel's DP would add another loss, making it a complete round of losses over all four electoral districts. The DP would lose one seat in the south, leaving it with two. Déi Gréng and ADR see almost no changes and would stay at two seats each, while a 2.3% gain for Déi Lénk would suffice for one additional seat, raising them to two seats as well.

Just like in all other electoral districts, KPL, Piratepartei and PID would see very little gains and losses compared to 2013, leaving them out in the cold for the time being.

CSV strong anew, DP and LSAP on the ropes

Recapping all four electoral districts, the results would be unmistakable if elections were to take place this Sunday. The CSV would gain five seats in total, putting it at 28, merely three seats short of an absolute majority in Parliament (31 out of 60). The DP and LSAP would each lose three seats, putting them at a meagre ten seats each. What's more, even though Déi Gréng would retain their six seats, the governing coalition would be reduced from 32 to 26 seats.

Déi Lénk would win one additional seat, putting them on equal footing with the ADR at three seats. KPL, Piratepartei and PID would not be able to win any seats in the “Chambre” in the current situation.

The results leave little room for interpretation, practically seeing a transfer of five seats from DP and LSAP to the CSV, while the remaining lost seat would go to Déi Lénk. 

There seems to be some degree of disagreement with the way the DP-LSAP-Déi Gréng coalition is going about their governing business, while Déi Gréng seem to remain largely unaffected by this, neither in a positive nor in a negative sense.

Although coming out of the 2013 elections with the biggest absolute number of seats (23), the CSV saw a government forming against it by the DP (13 seats), the LSAP (13) and Déi Gréng (6) at the time. A situation that some voters seem to be willing to alter by giving strong support to the conservatives. The next general elections are not yet around the corner (not before mid-2018), so all parties will have to draw their conclusions from these virtual results three years into this legislative period.

The "Sonndesfro"

The "Sonndesfro" (Sunday question) is a survey asking Luxembourg's citizens who they would vote for, were the elections taking place this Sunday. The "Sonndesfro" was commissioned by "Luxemburger Wort" and "RTL" and carried out by TNS Ilres.

A total of 4,078 citizens aged over 18 and having the right to vote in the general elections have been surveyed in the whole of Luxembourg, relative to the population of the four different electoral districts. 1,542 people were surveyed for the electoral district South. The survey was carried out via telephone between end of June 2016 and beginning of December 2016. Interviewees were asked to indicate which party they voted for during the last general elections on October 20, 2013, and which party they would vote for if they had the chance to do so coming Sunday.